Non Zero Probability

What are the chances?

A valid question because to meet the risk head on means to spend resources (time, money, effort, attention, etc.) to deal with the possibility of the risk which takes those resources away from other things. It’s never happened before is not a good metric for deciding whether it will happen in the future.

What’s the possibility of the Deepwater Horizon blowing up? What is the chance of a bat virus changing the world? What is the likelihood of the pilot making an error? With a non zero probability, the key is to understand the cost of the consequence and create a proactive response.

When you are in the flying environment this would be an awareness of the actions and thinking of the pilot and other crew. This small amount of focus and attention might save the day as you communicate hazards (e.g. “Wires 10 o’clock, 200 metres.”) and create a situation that is routine rather than dangerous.

The chance of the the monkey shooting you or the pilot making an error is never zero. Play your part. Be an active crew.

In Search of the Perfect Crew.